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Horostat 1.0 ReadMe.
The Horostat software application offers the statistics to either prove or disprove Astrology.
Table of Contents
Horostat blog
What is it?
How to use it
What's it for?
Recognizing garbage
Semi-Demo
Functions & buttons
Entering chart data
Precision
Notes
Changeing Aspect orb width
Elapseing a chart
Click 'n Drag planets
Help
Aspect line ID
The Statistical part
Selecting data
Bibliography
List of known bugs
Links
What is it?
In the 1970's, the Dept. of Paranormal Studies at Stanford Univ. did a statistical analysis of astrological interpretations, also a more recient one 1 by the Univ of Toronto, their result was that there is no special correlation between planets and events. I believe their result is false, because though the Stanford Univ. data may be correct, their interpretation of "event similarity" (my quotes) was too narrow, based as it were, on traditional (medieval) concepts of natural philosophy rather than science, it only proves that one of many interpretations were unfounded but shouldn't be extended to Astrology as a whole. So I wrote the Horostat program to provide a sketch of any verifiable influences and I think I found at least one that I've never heard of as well as some supporting evidence of more traditional ones. See Horostat Blog, 24 Jan. 2011.
Q: So how does a person recognize a "similar" event?
A: One trusts certain memories which are obtained through experience rather than through communication (books & lectures).Simply put: if it's not yours, you won't recognize it.
Less Simply put: Awareness which is not socially relevant is subjective by default, though it occupies the greater usage of ones mental CPU. 2 Social awareness is built on a learned verbal description of what's important, which limits what we allow ourselves to know to mostly things which we can verbally communicate. Those sources (social conventions) require trusting someone else's experience over our own, and though that process is the backbone of both fundamentalism and primate society, those sources may still be in error. (An irrefutable example is the process that elected George Bush II. Twice!). Other examples: Historical Figures in literature (wikipedia)That's not saying social conventions are false, we depend on them for group cohesion. Without them what would music or humor be like? But since no two people remember the same event the same way, any attempt to define astrological events is equally open to disagreement. The purpose of the Horostat program is to give statistical evidence of astrological influence through ones own subjective recognition of "similar" events. It's the programmers belief that recognition of event similarity is an emotional memory, like remembering dreams. However: objective, verifiable, "hard" information depends on another persons agreement. We look to other people to see what's true 3, so some information is socially recognized as being an event and some ignored 4. The value of information is in its usefulness to the people in communication. Everyone sees UFOs, some people see the Blessed Virgin, no one sees J. Edgar Hoover.
So: in order to appraise information that MAY be true but can't be proved without the dilution of another persons opinion of an event that they didn't actually experience, Horostat's statistical function associates subjectively perceived events with verifiable astronomical events and give odds to one against random chance. The results don't lie, but what they represent can, so Horostat doesn't attempt to make sense of them: ie. no interpretation printout. (also because there are already hundreds of Astrology books and programs describing other peoples opinions).
Various disclaimers: There are a number of ways to draw conclusions from statistical data. This program uses a method called "frequency probability", but some say a technique called "Bayesian probability" is closer to the way a human brain actually works. 5 6
The writer/programmer (me) admits to having read one (1) book on statistics as a template to model this software, so any faulty procedure is from ignorance and not from intent. If someone want's to do a better job, I'll be happy to send you a copy of the source code. As of Oct 2012 I've given away 4 copies (and haven't heard any bad reports). 7.
Horostats House System is 30 degree cusps with the planets all aligned exactly in the middle of the Zodiac band. This way, everyone is equally dissatisfied. (I don't like it much either, but only because no one agrees). Horostat's houses definitions are based on constellation groups (Signs), and not on specific associations with fixed stars.
How to use it:
To use the statistical function, one needs to categorize dates by event such as from a diary, postmarks on response mail from mail order business, insurance claims, police or hospital entry records, etc. Mail order responses may be classified by product or volume for a profile of what inspires a response to your ad (it should cover several publication dates) Also works for hits on a web site. Hospital records might be by volume or affliction. There are 2 kinds of errors possible in selecting material:
The first is like shooting arrows at a barn and drawing a target circle around the best group. This is called a Post-defined hypothesis, which is a blasphemy against mathematics. Statisticians consider people who do that to be capable of pedophilia. The other is Definition Creep in subjective indexes. In a dream diary, a person can make indexes of anything describable, but these kinds of subjective events open a door to faulty procedure, not when the information is read, because literature does tend to recall mostly consistent memories 8 9, but rather when the information is recorded. This is because the definition of those events is bound to undergo subtle changes in interpretation from day to day, as ones emotional state is bound to fluctuate (like from winning or loosing the Lottery or OMG just anything), . . planets y'know.
The writers solution to "Definition Creep", and an Undefined Hypothesis, is to write down exactly what you expect to find. This is called a Predefined Hypothesis. This written thing is: The Category Definition, it identifies the goal, and it's a big deal. The program prompts you for a Category Definition in each folder, every time you open a new blank text window, till finally you save one for each folder. In it, you describe what the files in the folder have in common, what you are looking for, and that description is included with any statistical analysis done for those files. Don't cheat or you'll destroy your reputation before you even have one. A post defined Hypothesis isn't the same thing as looking for the effect of an astrologically induced event which can be verified objectively, and Horostat has no problem with that research. Ethically though you shouldn't cull the charts that don't agree and call the results authentic. (without first joining the Republican party)The following is an example of a category definition:
The charts in this folder represent the influences on the result of decisive air battles in the Pacific theater during ww2. Specifically the influence of Mercury, Venus, Mars, Neptune and the Ascendant on the relative signs associated with America (Mercury/Gemini) and Japan (Venus/Libra). ...etc. etc.The chart examples also lists the time/date of influential events of those battles, which can be charted and added to the analysis. Such as times of sightings, engagements, maneuvers, damages, withdrawals, etc.
The user must provide at least 5 dates-charts-files (they're all the same) per category to enter the Statistical function's graph box, and for increased accuracy, up to 500 per category, (though some say this is minimal for real evidence). With less than 17 dates, the results will be distorted. In the Stats. Dialog Box: the slide button labeled "<--real-odds-not-->" adjusts the stringency of the analysis by percent from 100% (slide to the left) to 0% (slide to the right, completely bogus). Lower percentages multiply a small sample till it's big enough to show which planets have potential to become players, given enough charts and a continuing trend.
Ok, say I decide to find out if Lulu really loves me, I check my diary to find when Lulu occurs, but what I really find are those times when I was feeling the impulse to write down whatever the event was. Objectively, this may not be what I'm looking for. That's not saying "Whenever I Feel Like Writing It Down" isn't a justifiable category because, like with Schrodinger's cat, Quantum physics says the observer can't help but affect the result. Its just that statistics keepers take a straight faced vow to be objective (ie: it's best to get paid before any work is started. See above paragraph 3).
The accepted scientific procedure is to write down EVERY contact with Lulu (or The Boogie Man), separated into categories represented by some sort of equally spaced grid of time or space. To establish this impartiality, Horostat uses the predictability of celestial mechanics as the grid. However, only the most outstanding events are selected because they represent the topic of the hypothesis, and because this is the way awareness works, as opposed to recording every detail of every event, which is time consuming and impossible any way because we get back to "what is an event?" (see ppg 1). ...Well, an event is a subjective perception, so trust yourself.
Each event of a category can be rated by "perceived intensity". Of particular value are apparently spontaneous events. But just because I see Lulu every day by the bus stop doesn't mean its unimportant, it just means those might be rated with numbers closer to zero. One creates separate categories for different kinds of events, but one can rate the same event in different categories if they apply. One names the category title when the folder is created, and it's possible to rate the "intensity", by giving the first letter of the file name, a value from - 9 to + 9, (ie: "-1 Hairwashing " in the "Strife" folder). Rating the intensity in the title is for visual selection only, like an analog sub-category. The name does nothing to affect statistical analysis. Once a group has been selected they're all equal. But if results are not obtained in a narrow definition of the event, the scope can be widened by including those file names with numbers closer of the "perceived intensity" index to zero and vise versa.
Now, even with all this stuff spelled out, one still can't tell about lovely Lulu. So one decides to revise the category hypothesis to read: "How can I optimize my relationship with she of the beauteous derriere?"
a) One enters all the dates with the highest numbers to find what motivates us (one).
b) One enters all the dates with the lowest numbers to find when to avoid her.
Another note on Definition Creep; When one asks Lulu to the Grand Ball, She says she has to wash her hair (for 48 hours). How does one classify this kind of event? A wrong interpretation will wreck a small sample of events, and skewer ones pining heart. So, if no verification can be obtained, one rates the event closer to zero and denies whatever one can afford (One truely believes she had cement in her hair), or create a new category.
And last: LuLu decides to sell the skin business and move back to Suburbia so, should one date an event when one hears of it, or when the decision concerning the event was made, or when the event actually occurs? The answer is yes and put copies of all three in their own category. There may be no correlation but we'll never know if we don't look.
My Dragonfly Wind Generator Company (buy one) seems to have a consistent lump of orders when the Sun enters a fire sign, so we figured this is impulse buying of a $800 item, and refined the ads to appeal to impulse buyers. But wait! a study of the dates of email orders indicated more sales were made during the winter. These signs are generally serious and not too impulsive, but it is the time of year when wind does it's thing best, and a serious person would notice the potential. See Horostat Semi-Demo.
To REFINE the discovery of whatever is influencing a category of events, look thru the aspects (etc,) shown in the statistics graphs, then look through the charts in that folder for only those charts that have that particular aspect. See if the chart's notes have anything in common, and after wailing briefly about faulty procedure: select only those charts to see what else is happening there. The "Notes" button provides an opportunity to record anything outstanding in an individual chart, so those notes can later be reviewed for similarities.
The design philosophy of this program is to provide a tool for general astrological research which will allow one to:
(1) Identify the common influences affecting 5 or more dates.Identifying Garbage:
(a) Identify dates when those influences will be strong or weak.
(b) Identify buyer / seller profiles.
(c) Allow lead time using customer databases to anticipate trends.
(d) Estimate the probable areas of harmony or disharmony among a group of individuals.
(2) Obtain statistical evidence for an astrological concept.
(3) Chart specific conjunctions, aspects or planet returns, and identify cycles.
(4) Get filthy rich by dabbling in the stock market.
(5) Provide statistical proof that one is not mad. (heh ...)
Any group of samples will have something in common, the question is whether it's relevant to your Predefined Hypothesis. If the results are consistent throughout a series of samples of varying sizes, and missing in samples that don't represent the Predefined Hypothesis, chances are it's relevant. But even then, just because some odds turn up doesn't mean they're proof of anything. For example:
A fair rule of thumb of what to watch for might be: Warmer colors will naturally fall to the slower planets, so if any of those are the cooler colors, it may bear investigation, the same goes for warmer colors among the faster planets. A lot of hits in a column probably means something. But for me, too many are confusing so I concentrate on the ones high in the column and take aspects between the sun mercury and venus with a grain of salt because they form aspects with each other all the time and some are bound to show up in any series. However, those very random aspects may be a primary instigation for people to act on any whim that they'd otherwise sleep through. And if NONE show there, that's noteworthy.
- I want to find out which influences affect the Santa Anna winds, I put in some dates and viola! Uranus, Neptune & Pluto are in yellow, BUT the sample covered a shorter span of time than their transit through one sign, so all charts would have them in the same sign and they would show high odds for being there.
- The Sun, Mercury and Venus are usually in each others 1st, 2nd or 12th house anyway because Venus is never more than 48 degrees from the Sun, and Mercury is less.
- The Midheaven and Nadir are always 180 degrees apart so they're always in each others 7th house.
- The Suns 4th and 10th house for Ascendant and Descendant.
- If enough charts are drawn excluding the calculations for the horizon (because the time is unknown, ie. zero in the hour box, see next section), it affects the Part of Fortune and puts it in whichever house is as far behind the Moon as the Sun is behind the Ascendant, which is about 3 signs at noon.
- There are probably others.
The Horostat functions:1) Entering chart data: access the first window or by clicking on "New Chart" or key: (Cmd. "c"). To select another data editing box, click on it, hit tab, or key: (Cmd. "1" = day, Cmd. "2" = month, Cmd. "3" = year, etc).
If you're doubtful about the hour of an event, enter zero (0) in the hour box before saving. This "disconnects" the hour box for that chart, and prevents unreliable entries from swamping the data associated with the horizon. (the chart will be drawn for noon, however, this goofs up the calculations for the Part of Fortune (if you use the Arabic Parts) and reduces the reliability of it's figures) If you know the hour but not the longitude, click the box labeled "Approx. Asc." and the horizon will be placed according to international time zones (though they are seldom consistent with longitude, continental US is within 3 hrs, i.e. +/- 1.5 hrs).
Data entry is a bottleneck, it's ok to enter few events at a time this way, but listing 300 dates is grueling, & tedious beyond belief. So the program has a function in the text editing window (see below 'Notes'). A menu called 'Import Data' instructs the program to read from a text file and record hundreds of charts in a couple of seconds. They still have to be entered but it cuts the time drastically. The text has to be in the format below. A word processor program with spreadsheets can be set up to list the info. but if you haven't used a spreadsheet before, it won't save time. Instead use a regular textfile w/ a fixed width font like courier and justify everything to the right. That way goes pretty fast and errors stand out because the only variable sized entry is to the left. And if you paste this string: " AD, Lat.--N, Long.---W, ", it flies. For the name there should be no caps and total less than 21 characters, + one space at the end of the name.
another name , 02/04/02002 AD, Lat.39N, Long.123W, 12:46 AM
name 3 , 15/09/02002 AD, Lat.--N, Long.---W, 00:00 AM
name_4 , 30/11/01999 AD, Lat.33N, Long.101W, 03:31 PM+ 246 more
The format is: name , dd/mm/yyyyy AD,(or BC) Lat.LLN(S), Long.LLLW(E), hh:mm AM (or PM). If you don't know the Latitude and longitude, replace those numbers with dashes (-). If the time is unknown, replace the hrs & mins w/ zeros. Punctuation characters, spaces, and the number of characters after the name are all critical, a total of 47 characters or spaces, not including the name.Before these files can be used in the statistic function, they need to be compiled using the "Rebuild" button in the statistics dialog box.
